The Stock Investigator

See you next year!

2006-12-04T14:13:00.000+01:00

A new year, a new concept! This will be my motto these days. I am sorry, but I was once again ill - so I could not write these last days. (But, since my readers are so few, I don´t expect it to be a big loss...) Anyhow, my trading wasn´t great either these last days. So, I decided to take the last days of this year off from blogging. I will be back in 2007 with a new concept (I will work on that now!) and then this Blog will be more attractive. Therefore I wish you a merry christmas and a happy new year already. Before I leave though, I will take a quick look at last weeks trades:

1) ORCC - unfortunately we were stopped out at 10.15$ at the second day. One day later, we almost hit my target of 11$. But, out is out - leaving us with a loss of -1,75%.

2) CXG - why did I say you should short this stock? I can not understand my decision back then... Stopped out at 27.60$, a loss of - 3,8%.

3) WGA - not stopped out, it is still on - but, three dojis in a row... that looks like uncertainty. Too bad. Time to sell it...

That is it for this year - new year, new luck. Take care,

The Stockinvestigator

Point and Figure Charts

2006-11-28T14:30:00.000+01:00

Hi again,

as usual, we will look at our stock picks from last week. First we have our "horror"trade EXP. It did not turn out to be what I expected. So, you should be out of this option trade. It might climb again - but I doubt that it will make the 45$ within the next two weeks. These days I am trying to digg into the Point and Figure charting. I never used it and I really don´t know much about it. Anyhow, I read a bit and, using a 3box reversal chart, box size 1,5%, would result in the price goal of 44.57$ - if it should rise. This is pretty close to our 45$, but not close enough. Here is my first P+F chart:
Next one: CWTR - did it close the Gap? No! Instead it was sold at 27.80$, leaving us with a loss of -2,1%. But, it still looks promising... Oh well.

Here are some new ideas:

1. ORCC - last price was 10.33$. We have a nice hammer, but my SL is at 10.15$, a little below the PivotPoint. First target at 11$. The chart:

2. Another hammer on CXG - this time to go short. Last price: 26.58$, first goal: in the area of 23.90$, SL at 27.60$. The chart:

3. WGA - last price: 3.85$, SL at 3.55$ (4week high!), first target: open. Nice chart:

Good luck,

The Stockinvestigator

Fading the Gap

2006-11-23T13:05:00.000+01:00

Hi again,

another week passed by without any post. Well, this time I was ill - a flue. But anyhow, our last trade did not turn out to be what I expected it to be. EXP is below the price I adviced and our option EXPLI lost -42% so far, currently at 0.55$. That is way too much - and I would be out of this trade for sure - but somehow I still believe in it. Let´s see.

Today I just have one stock to advice: CWTR. It gapped down yesterday - after this news (quoted from Minyanville):

Coldwater Creek (CWTR) said third-quarter net income rose, as revenue gained, to $15.9 million, or 17 cents a share, from $10.5 million, or 11 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year. The apparel retailer said quarterly revenue rose to $256.4 million from $186.8 million in the prior year.

Last price was 28.40$. In the past, CWTR closed the gaps nicely, so I expect a safe win. SL however will be at 27.80$ (below Pivot). Target: 30.12$.

Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

Call on EXP

2006-11-16T13:20:00.000+01:00

Hi again,

it has been quite a while, I know. But hey, did I mention that I am short of time? Anyhow, last Friday, STAK reached my target of 5.92$, a gain of +4,6%. Perfect!

Now, today I would like to comment on a new idea: a call on EXP. I used the Darvas-Box-System to find this trade. Last price was 42.28$. I expect it to rise up to the area of 50-51$ (olive line) within the next month. Calls on EXP however only go up to a strike price of 45$ (bright green line). Ok. Then we will buy the December Call EXPLI. Last price was 0.95$. I expect this trade to take off within 10 days. No more picks today - right, it is the missing time. Here is the chart for EXP:

Take care and God bless,

The Stockinvestigator

No time...

2006-11-10T09:39:00.000+01:00

First of all, I have to say a big sorry! I just could not fin dthe time these days to comment on my last picks. But now I will review them:

1) FONR - just on the first day it opened with a gap, at 0.25$. It then closed at 0.28$. However, we would have not be in the trade due to these circumstances. After that the stock rose up to 0.30$ (current price), which would be a 3,45% gain. However, I will not count this trade - mainly because we would have not be in it. This topic brings up another importnat question: which conditions should be accepted to get in a trade? What are the criteria? Well, this is one point I like to change in this blog - I want to describe the trades more detailled. However, I can not stress it enough, I am missing time right now. So, all I need from your side is a little patience.

2) STAK - it also lost the first days - however, our SL at 5.50$ did not break. Currently STAK is at 5.83$ - a gain of +3%. I still see it climbing - but as usually, I would not hold it over the weekend.

More next time - take care,

The Stockinvestigator

TradingIdeas IV

2006-11-07T11:41:00.000+01:00

Hi again,

well, first of all, let´s take a look at last weeks open pick: MEH. About the direction of the stock I was right, upwards (currently: 8.44$). But, on Friday we had a "long-range" day - which resulted in a loss for us, since we got stopped out at 7.60$. So, MEH gave us a -5% loss, while it actually made 5,5% plus since my advice. Too bad.

New let´s look at new opportunities. As usually, I am lacking time and I am not amused about that fact. I would love to spend more time on writing this blog - but these days I just don´t have this time. So, either Istop this blog or I just comment shortly. I will do the last. But, as soon as I will have time again, I will work a little bit on the concept of this blog. Here are my ideas for today:

1) For all the Penny Lovers (I usually avoid pennystocks...), here might be a good opportunity: FONR, last price was 0.29$, SL below the PivotPoint at 0.27$, first target is 0.35$, giving us a CRR of 3(!). Just remember that it is very risky to play this stock - but since we have a good CRR, I added it here. This is the chart:

2) STAK, last price was 5.66$, SL at 5.50$, first target is 5.92$, CRR = 1,6. This stock was filtered by the idea that different MA diverge together, which usually indicates a point of "explosion". Let´s see, here is the chart:

Possible Optionplay:

ADM - should be ready for a PopUp now, last price was 43.32$ - time to buy calls!

To all of you out there, good luck today!

The Stockinvestigator

Staying in...

2006-11-03T11:19:00.000+01:00

Hi,

MEH lost -1,37%, closing at 7.89$. Not what I expected - but, we will stay in this trade - it still looks promising. The SL will stay the same. That is all for now, have a nice weekend,

The Stockinvestigator

Introducing the CRR

2006-11-02T12:31:00.000+01:00

Hi,

today I would like to introduce the CRR - this is the "Chance-to-Risk-Ratio". Nothing really new, most people know it as the Profit-Risk-Ratio. However, I want to try this idea - which I never really did before. Here is my approach to it:

1. Find the stock you would like to trade and set a personal target
2. Set the SL
3. Divide the possible gain (target minus price) through the possible loss (price minus SL)
4. This ratio has to be bigger than 1.5 in order to place the trade!
5. Use the ATR(5) to see if the move in your direction will be able to take place within 4 days maximum!

The stock I choose today is MEH, last price was 8$, my first target is 8.70$, the SL is at 7.60$ (below PivotPoint). The ratio therefore is 1.75. The ATR(5) is at 0.76 currently - which makes it risky to get stopped out - but also likely to reach the first target within a day! Here is the chart:

Good luck to all of you,

The Stockinvestigator

The horror day of trading...

2006-11-01T12:32:00.000+01:00

Hi,

wow, just right for Halloween, it was a horror day of trading yesterday. All my picks were losers. It seems like I am out of practice - after a week of absence. Oh well.

The FXtrade on the EURUSD lastet only about 2 hours, it was then wiped out for a -20 Pips loss. Also EXFO and RMTR were stopped out - leaving us with a -2,75% loss for EXFO and a -4,63% loss on RMTR. Too bad.

But, what are the lessons learned? - Well, I was rushing yesterday - however, I felt very comfortable with my picks. So, you should only take them, when looked at them carefully (no rushing) and, when being comfortable... - Today, I will not make any picks, simply because I don´t have the time.

Take care,
The Stockinvestigator

Happy Halloween

2006-10-31T11:09:00.000+01:00

Hi to all of you out there,

a Happy Halloween. It has been a while since my last post - but I was short on time - and, it does not look much better this week. However, I don´t want to leave you without some ideas to trade!

FOREX: I see an increasing downward trend on the EURUSD - this might be agood chance to go short. Currently at 1.2693, I would set my StopSell at 1.2690 - my longterm goal is in the area between 1.2590 and 1.2570 (support). As soon as price touches that area, I would sell. My SL for this trade would be placed at 1.2710 (20 Pips). Try to trail SL if trade goes in right direction.

Stocks:

1) EXFO - chart has built an inside day pattern, as I call it - good trade for today, last price was 5.09$, SL would be at 4.95$ (it is much lower than the PivotPoint - but I like to have a bigger range!)

2) RMTR - a candidate for a possible bounce - last price was 3.67$, SL at 3.50$

So much for today, no pics, I am sorry. Have a good day, till tomorrow,

The Stockinvestigator

Just 2 Pips that killed my trade!

2006-10-19T14:38:00.000+02:00

Too bad! The Tunnel Trade (USDCHF) I set up was killed by only 2 Pips difference. I was knocked out at 1.2664, while the low was at 1.2662! AAARGH! - The problem: if I would not have set the SL, I would have gained almost what I wanted - the USDCHF climbed to the high of 1.2740 - again, only 2 Pips below my target! The good thing: I was hitting bottom and top quite accurate - the bad thing: I did not make profit out of this. Instead of having a 56 Pip win within 4 hours, I lost -20 Pips in just half the time. My resume: the Tunnel-Method works - but I will have to follow my own ideas in FOREX.

But this trade was not the only bad one yesterday. While the Dow Jones climbed above 12.000 during yesterdays trading (Congratulations pal!), our last three stocks lost. STXN lost 0,87%, closing at 4.57$. I would get out now, however, chances are 60% that it will climb again today! We are still up by 3,6%. PXLW got stopped out at 2.99$, leaving us with a loss of -3,2%. Finally, OSTE also lost, falling back to 4.25$, still a 0,95% gain. Time to get out!

No more trades this week - next week I might not be around, so, have a nice time, see you soon,
The Stockinvestigator

A question of timing!

2006-10-18T10:47:00.000+02:00

Hi to all of you,

trading is most of all a question of timing! I am quite satisfied with my timing yesterday. The markets went down, and with them most of my picks. So, it was the right time to get out. SNE lost -2,91%, TXN lost -2,12%. Both options of course lost most of the profits we gained so far. So, if you got out as I said, you should have made decent profits! CCUR also lost more than 2% - it was the right time to get out here aswell.

Now let´s look at the three trades we kept:

1) STXN it gained only 0,43%, closing at 4.62$ - a total gain of +4,8% so far. Chance are good that it will continue climbing, so I would stay in this trade - however, I would set my new SL to 4.50$ (right below the PivotPoint), which would leave you with a gain of 2% in case you get stopped out! (Note: we have a Doji candle to watch out for!)

2) PXLW - now this stock lost, as I expected. But, it lost more than I expected - it lost 5,57%, closing at 3.02$. This leaves us with a -2,3% loss so far. Don´t change the initial SL - either we will be stopped out he next trading session, or the stock will gain momentum again.

3) OSTE gained another 2,1% - leaving us with a total gain of +3,3% so far, last price: 4.35$. Keep it on!

Last but not least I want to give it another try in FOREX today. Just a minute ago I went long on the USDCHF @ 1.2684. My entry trigger was the TunnelMethod (one last try!). My SL is at 1.2664. My Target will be 1.2742. Here the chart:

So much for now, take care,

The Stockinvestigator

Pick the good ones...

2006-10-17T12:27:00.000+02:00

Hi,

just very shortly, I hardly have time today: the picks yesterday have been quite nice. STXN went up by +4,31%, closing at 4.60$. Also gaining +4,53% was PLXW, closing at 3.23$. Only VLNC was bad luck - while it gained 1,03%, my SL was too tight. The low was at 1.88$, my SL at 1.89$. Too bad, this trade lost -3%. The other five stocks on my watchlist also performed well, except of AXTI and IOC which even lost more than 6%.

SNE gained 0,54% again - however the options did not change. Time to lock in profits! TXN also went up by 0,76%. Our options are now up by +38,7% for TXNAF.X and by +44,4% for TXNAZ.X. I would also get out of this trade now.

CCUR lost 1,06%, closing at 1.86$ - still a gain of +9,4%. OSTE also lost 0,23%, closing at 4.26$ - a gain of 1,2% in total. However, it is not the trade I expected it to be so far. I would stick with the initial SL to see if it might climb again or not. Other CCUR, I would get out of this trade now, locking in the profits so far.

Summing it all up, I would close all my trades now, except OSTE (seeing what will happen!) and of course STXN and PXLW. Note: both of them have a high RSI(2) which usually indicates a selling signal. However, keeping the initial SL, there should be room to grow, even if it might fall a little today. But, if you like it safer, just look in the profits, 4,5% is fair enough. So much for today, good luck,

The Stockinvestigator

In the mood of trading...

2006-10-16T12:40:00.000+02:00

Even though it is Monday, I am in the mood of trading the markets today. Why? - Because all my last picks went well on Friday. Let´s have a closer look:

1. SNE climbed by 4,17%, closing at 40.68$. For our options, this means a +90,3% gain for SNEKG.X and even a +310% gain for SNEKH.X! That is the way I like it...

2. TXN closed at 32.81$, only a 0,98% gain - but, still our options are running well, +25,8% for TXNAF.X and +33,3% for TXNAZ.X!

3. CCUR is still climbing, last price was 1.88$, a total gain of 10,6% so far.

4. OSTE was also climbing by 1,43% to 4.27$. Fair enough...

That is why I can not resist from trading the markets today - which, by the way, is a typical mistake: "overtrading". But, oh well. I have a couple of stocks on my list today and I believe they are all ready for a move upwards. The stocks on my list are: STXN, AXTI, IOC, TGB, CYTO, PXLW, KSW, VLNC. However, I will only comment on three of them (keep the others on your watch list aswell!):

1. STXN, last price 4.41$, my SL is at 4.07$. The filter I used was my "Volupri" filter. Here is the chart:

2. PXLW, last price was 3.09$, my SL would be at 2.99$. The filter I used was built up on the Linear Regresion Indcator, lri. Here is the chart:

3. VLNC, last price was 1.95$, my SL is at 1.89$. The filter was the version of Ichimoku I use. Here is the chart:

By the way, even my goal for the FOREX trade on EURCHF was hit on Friday afternoon. Not bad... For now I wish you all the best, take care,

The Stockinvestigator

Let the market come to you...

2006-10-13T11:39:00.000+02:00

Today it´s a special date: Friday, the 13th! I know that in the USA it is a day of fear - even more than in Germany. This date is closely related to the crash of the stock market in the end of the 1920´s. - Personally, I like this day, it was always of luck for me. Let´s see, if the luck will be on my trading side aswell.

Reviewing our trades, we have only winners today. First: SNE - it climbed by 1,1%, closing at 39.05$. For our options this means a +45,1% gain for SNEKG.X (price bought: 3.1$, last price 4.5$) and a +120% gain for SNEKH.X (price bought: 0.5$, last price 1.1$). SNEKG.X lost a little bit again - but we are still fine...

Our options for TXN are also up, by +23,9% for TXNAF.X (last price 3.84$) and by +27,8% for TXNAZ.X, last price 2.3$. As mentioned yesterday, try to lok in the win - without getting out of the trade. Maybe be setting the SL for SNEKG.X to 4.2$, for SNEKH.X to 0.9$, for TXNAF.X to 3.75$, and for TXNAZ.X to 2.1$. Both of them should still keep on running, but I like to play them safe - so you don´t want to loose the money again.

Now to CCUR: last price was 1.87$ as it went up by more than 8%, giving us a pure +10% gain so far. Keep it on...

Today I will also comment on a very speculative idea. It is a stock which usually I would not trade - due to it´s chart. But, if t goes up, chances are good, it will climb by 20% or more within a week. This is the fiter I used to find this stock:

"slope of rsi(4) is below -30"

The stock I am talking about is: OSTE, last price was 4.21$. I would set my SL to 3.99$ (red line on the chart), which is much lower than the PivotPoint (blue line). But, since it is very seculative, I would risk 5% on this trade. Here is the chart:

Last but not least, I decided to comment on my idea on FOREX that should let the market come to you. What was my idea?

My idea was to set up a trade that will reach a predetermined amount of Pips. I decided to earn 50 Pips in 48 hours. So, the first step was to look at the daily chart to see the ATR that had to be above 35 Pips (in order to achieve 50 Pips in 48hours!). This gave me the currency pair EURCHF. Then I switched to the 1hour chart and apllied a couple of instruments and indicators. The basic idea though, was to set up a box, starting with the Tuesdays open value (open = 00.00). From the open point I added 10 Pips and I subtracted 10 Pips. This gave me a box of 20 Pips height. The length of the box was set to 36 hours. As soon as one candle broke above (or below) the box with it´s body (!), I went long. (Note: also used two EMA´s and the RSI(12) to support this entry!) The SL was set a 2*ATR of entry - which was 16 Pips here. Therefore I had an entry point of 1.5902, the SL was at 1.5886. My Profit target was set to 1.5957 (golden line) - so this would be 50 Pips plus 5 Pips spread. The maximum of this trade was hit at 1.5951 (blue line) - which is just 6 Pips below my target. I am pretty happy with this approach - the trade turned sideways afterwards - but it still is in the profits, currently at 1.5932. So, where should it go from here? I´d be glad to get any response from my readers, letting me know of some possible add-ons or changes. Here is the chart for this trade (49 Pips in 28 hours is ok...):

For today I wish you a happy weekend, take care,

The Stockinvestigator

All you need is just a little patience....

2006-10-12T14:10:00.000+02:00

Well, it´s that easy...! Our SNE options went up, while SNE was gaining 3,1% yesterday. Since we placed the trade again, we are now +90% up on SNEKH.X (last price 0.95$ - and even hitting 1.20$ in the top!) and +48,4% on SNEKG.X (last price 4.6$). Now, that is ok, don´t you think?

For TXN we are up by +16,1% with TXNAF.X (last price 3.6$) and +13,3% with TXNAZ.X (last price 2.04$). This is also ok, I guess. Both trades should be kept - try to capture profits with changing SL level!

CCUR lost -1,14% - but we are still in, since SL was not touched. HAWK was stopped out, leaving us with a -1,8% loss.

Other than that, no new picks today - next time I will comment on my new Forex idea. Good luck,

The Stockinvestigator

The problem with the RSI

2006-10-11T11:44:00.000+02:00

Hi,

today it will be a good opportunity to talk about a general problem of indicators like the RSI (wether it is the RSI(2) or RSI(28) or RSI(...) doesn´t make a difference...). Let´s look at our trade SNE. SNE lost -0,21%, closing at 37.49$ (close to the 6month low!). SNE lost for more than five days in a row now - and the RSI(2) was below 5 back last week already. Currently it is at 0.25. But what will happen if SNE falls even more? - There is hardly any space left for the RSI to move. So, it is not necesseraly a good buy jsut because the RSI(2) is currently at 0.25. Maybe it will be at 0.10 tomorrow... But, the problem remains - where can the RSI go to? This of course also happens on the top side. If the RSI is at 98.7, where might it go if the stock continues up? Did you catch what I mean? You should be aware of this problem!

Anyhow, back to our trades. SNE was stopped out at 37.35$. Our options therefore lost -11,4% (SNEKG.X, last 3.1$) and -28,6% (SNEKH.X, last 0.5$). That is way too much! Yet, I still believe that SNE is a good candidate - so, I would stick with these options and place the trade again. The same situation for TXN. TXN lost -0,64% - but it did not get stopped out. So, the trade is still on. But, TXNAF.X lost -3,2% (last 3$) and TXNAZ.X lost -5,5% (last 1.7$). I would also be careful here - but still be in the trade.

So, these options had not been my best idea so far. Let´s see how the other stocks performed:

1) MOBE got stopped out aswell, loosing -6,9%
2) CCUR gained 2,94% and I still see it climbing - as I said, give it one or two weeks to develop!
3) HAWK gained 2,51% - possibly going up more

Today I will not comment on any more trades since I am lacking time. However, I am working on a FOREX system that gained more than 40 Pips within 20 hours. But, it is still in work. So, more next time. Good luck to all of you,

The Stockinvestigator

TradingIdeas III

2006-10-10T12:24:00.000+02:00

Hi,

first of all: SNE went down by -0,56%, closing at 37.57$. However, the two options I picked, remained unchanged. Since my SL was not hit (37.35$) and the RSI(2) is even lower than yesterday, I still believe in this pick. It should be bouncing today! Now my ideas:

1) TXN: I was reading in the news yesterday, that Texas Instruments is about to build a new factory either in the Philipines or in China. Usually I don´t care much about Fundamentals or News - but I remembered that TXN was on my filter of the RSI(2) aswell. So, in this case, I see a chance for a possible rise. Here, I would be a Call option, already in the money, let´s say: TXNAF.X, last price was 3.10$. Also you could buy one very close to be in the money, TXNAZ.X, last price 1.80$. The stocks last price was 31.43$, my SL (to get out of the trade) would be 30.48$.

2) MOBE: this will be a very speculative trade. The stock was filtered by my "FallenStocks" filter. It has declined quite a lot already - I believe that now it is time for a pullback! Last price was 2.90$, my SL would be at 2.70$. Here is the chart:

3) CCUR: this might be a good trade for a time period of one or two weeks. last price was 1.70$. My SL is at 1.60$. The filter I used was a version of an Ichimoku that I use sometimes. Here is what it looks like:
4) HAWK: this stock was filtered by a version of my RangeRatio filter. Last price of the stock was 10.37$. My SL would be at 10.18$.

So much for today, good luck to you,
The Stockinvestigator

Good chance on SNE

2006-10-09T12:48:00.000+02:00

Hi again,

those of you that read my blog frequently (how many are there anyhow? - there can´t be too many I guess.... - maybe I should start making this blog more attractive - and maybe I should make this blog better known...) know that I don´t like to trade on Mondays. However, using the RSI(2) filter, I found a good chance on SNE.

I was watching SNE since last week - so far, it kept on falling. But, the RSI(2) is at 0.43 currently. I believe, SNE is ready for a PopUp! Last price was 37.78$. My SL would be at 37.35$. But, instead of buying the stock itself, I would be a Call on SNE.

Now, which Call should it be? - Those of you that follow the Stockfetcher forum probably know "Mary4Money". This user is posting his optionplays that are quite sophisticated. I am also working on a more sophisticated strategy. However, it´s not done yet. So, I can only advice you the following:

1) In-the-money option: already is in the money, so the gain might be smaller
2) Out-of-the-money option: gain might be bigger - if stock moves quite a lot!

I would choose a November Call - probably in the money. This would be the Call with the symbol: SNEKG.X, last price 3.50$. The out of the money November Call is at 0.70$, the symbol: SNEKH.X. Either one of these I would choose.

Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

Yeah, I am still alive...

2006-10-06T14:30:00.000+02:00

Hi out there,

it´s been a while this time since my last post! I am very sorry about that. But, this week we had our Reunification Day in Germany - so I decided to take this week off! And, what a pleasure it had been. You should do this once in a while! Well, now I am back and I will continue to comment on the financial markets. However, I will not review the last trades I posted. Everything that had to be said was said. Also, no new ideas for today, why? - Right, it´s weekend, so, no stocks to be held over the weekend. Therefore, I wish you a happy weekend, see you next week,

The Stockinvestigator

What a difference a day makes....

2006-09-28T12:42:00.000+02:00

Hi,

just for the record: the picks weren´t that bad at all in the end. Only OMRI was stopped out before - unfortunately, because it was a good buy yesterday. It gained 5,6%, closing at 17.47$. (High was even at 17.77$!) But, I didn´t hold it anymore...

Now to CCJ - it climbed aswell, and my option (CCJLG.X) is at 4.20$ now, which is a 20% gain in just 2 days! I would try to set the SL tighter to lock in the profits - maybe at 4$?! That would be a sure 14% win! And, WHI is climbing and climbing... - last price was 6.12$ - a gain of 3,66% yesterday and a 5,3% gain since my advice.

How about FUEL? - Well, no change, just like yesterday. I would sell it now - since there is no move in this stock. But, I would wait to see the market today! You never know... Last but not least, DRL: last price was 6.81$, meaning a 5,7% gain. I Doubt that it will climb much more - so I would sell this stock today - either by watching the market (maybe it´ll climb a bit more!) - or by setting the SL at 6.72$ (PivotPoint - 2cent), which would still be a 4,3% gain.

Today I will not comment on any picks since I am lacking time. But, I wish you all the best,
The Stockinvestigator

The only reliable system is found inside of yourself!

2006-09-27T11:19:00.000+02:00

Hi again,

well, it ws not my best day yesterday - still, I am not in a perfect mood to pick stocks. - Not to mention my Forex Trade. Ok, let´s review yesterdays action:

1) The trade on the USDCHF - I went long @ 1.2439, SL 1.2419. And, what can I say? I just hate whipshaws - the trade was wiped out exactly at 1.2419, resulting in a -20 Pip Loss. But how accurate! I just hate it. And, worst of all, the USDCHF is continuing to climb! Damned! - But enough for the emotional side now. Coming back to the analysis, I have to understand that my personal feeling of getting into the trade one day earlier @ 1.2372 would have been more than profitable. Instead I was unsure and just waiting for some other signal (TunnelMethod). So, what is the lesson for today:

"The only reliable system is inside of yourself! - If you feel comfortable, place the trade, if you do not feel comfortable, don´t place it!"

2) This, by the way, is true for WHI and especially CCJ aswell. Why did I hesitate to take the trade on CCJ? The option (CCJLG.X) climbed to 4$ - a sure 14% gain! And, WHI also climbed to 5.92$, meaning a 1,9% gain.

3) OMRI - this was my worst pick - I got stopped out at 16.12$ - resulting in a 5,1% loss. So, what is the positive aspect of this trade? The positive aspect: I picked the bottom quite well (actual bottom was at 16.10$)!

4) FUEL - also not the greatest pick - however, without any change! The close was 2$ again.

5) DRL - now, this was a pick like I like them: 4,8% gain, last price was 6.75$.

Last but not least: I never commented on the entries I take. Maybe I should do this - because sometimes you might not even get filled. In this case, you will not loose, nor win. But, entries are always difficult. Either a Limit or a Stop - I like to see where the market is going in the first 30 minutes. That is why I usually don´t comment on the entry. Anyhow, for today I will take a rest - I am not satisfied with my results yesterday. Of course you need a loosing day aswell - but 20 Pips...? I need a pause. More soon.

Take care,
The Stockinvestigator

Long on the USDCHF

2006-09-26T15:18:00.000+02:00

Update:
I just placed a long trade on the USDCHF - based on the TunnelMethod. Buy @ 1.2439, my SL is 20 Pips below, at 1.2419. I have been tracking this currency pair since yesterday (I wanted to get in at 1.2372, but I was unsure - too bad!) - now I have my reliable (at least I hope so!) entry! Here is the chart:

Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

Starting into a new trading week

2006-09-26T10:01:00.000+02:00

Hello again,

after a nice weekend, I am back and ready to start into a new trading week. These last days I haven´t felt very comfortable with picking stocks (a sign to stay out of the market!) - although I still feel a little dull, I picked some opportunities to trade today. (I guess the feeling of being dull is due to the fact that finally fall arrived here... the world outside is just a shade of grey...)

Here are my ideas:

1) OMRI - last price was 16.99$, my selection criteria was, once again, the RSI(2) with a current value of 2.85. My SL is at 16.12$ (12 cents below the PivotPoint - but it looks more reasonable to me - when looking at the chart!) - I don´t have a clear goal yet, but I expect the upward trend which started in mid-september, to continue.

2) FUEL - last price was 2.00$. My selection criteria was a filter that I call "FallenStocks". THE Code is as follows:

price dropped more than 30% over last 15 days
and rsi(2) is below 1
and price above 1

As you can see, basically another RSI(2) filter - annoying, right? But it works well, so why not? My SL level will be 1.85$. My first goal will be 2.42$ - and, later 2.85$. You can see them on my drawing in the chart.

3) DRL - last price was 6.44$. I picked this stock because of a filter called "Bowtie" - I have to admitt that I forgot who wrote about that filter, but I read it somewhere - it´s not my own idea. The bowtie is formed by three Moving Averages, an EMA(20), an EMA(30), and a MA(10). My SL for this stock is at 6.25$.

Two more stocks are on my watchlist - but somehow I don´t feel too comfortable with them. So I would like to see where they are heading today. The stocks I am talking about are: WHI and CCJ. Especially Cameco would be a candidate for a call option. Iwould prefer a "in-the-money" option - since I don´t expect a strong move. For example the option with the symbol: CCJLG.X, currently at 3.50$. Well, let´s see.

Good luck to you,
The Stockinvestigator

30 Pips vs. 6%?!

2006-09-21T11:22:00.000+02:00

Hi again,

first of all, I´m sorry that I could not manage to post yesterday. Anyhow, let´s see what happened to my last advices:

Starting with the PutWarrant (QQIG) on the EURGBP. I bought it at 6.08€ - the high today was at 6.50€ - so, we are currently 6% up. That is good - but, and here is the interesting fact, concerning the undelying asset - which in this case is a currency pair - this 6% gain is not great at all. If I would have sold the EURGBP, I would have had a gain of +30 Pips so far - and, still running. Depending on how many lots you have, 30 Pips are around 30% - which is 5 times as much. Ohoh. I guess I just picked a bad example for the use of warrants...

Somehow it was not my best posting and stock picking day anyhow. (But you have to be aware of the fact that bad stock picks will also occur - it´s the question on when to get out in case they go the wrong way!) I recommended TIVO. And, I was stopped out at 7.75$. So, I lost 2,6%. However, TIVO closed at 7.67$ this day, which would have been a 3.6% loss. But, just yesterday TIVO climbed back to 7.75$, with a intraday high of 7.84$. And, I still see this stock as a candidate for profits (on a weekly basis). Now let´s take a look at NVAX: it lost some points and gained some points. Currently it is at 3.66$, still a gain of 1,9%. Although my RSI(2) displays a value above 50 right now, I still believe in this stock to climb. SL could be shifted upwards to 3.60$ - but I would stick with 3.48$.

So much for now. Today I will starting a long weekend - so, I will post again next week. Good luck to all of you,

The Stockinvestigator