What a difference a day makes....

Hi,

just for the record: the picks weren´t that bad at all in the end. Only OMRI was stopped out before - unfortunately, because it was a good buy yesterday. It gained 5,6%, closing at 17.47$. (High was even at 17.77$!) But, I didn´t hold it anymore...

Now to CCJ - it climbed aswell, and my option (CCJLG.X) is at 4.20$ now, which is a 20% gain in just 2 days! I would try to set the SL tighter to lock in the profits - maybe at 4$?! That would be a sure 14% win! And, WHI is climbing and climbing... - last price was 6.12$ - a gain of 3,66% yesterday and a 5,3% gain since my advice.

How about FUEL? - Well, no change, just like yesterday. I would sell it now - since there is no move in this stock. But, I would wait to see the market today! You never know... Last but not least, DRL: last price was 6.81$, meaning a 5,7% gain. I Doubt that it will climb much more - so I would sell this stock today - either by watching the market (maybe it´ll climb a bit more!) - or by setting the SL at 6.72$ (PivotPoint - 2cent), which would still be a 4,3% gain.

Today I will not comment on any picks since I am lacking time. But, I wish you all the best,
The Stockinvestigator

The only reliable system is found inside of yourself!

Hi again,

well, it ws not my best day yesterday - still, I am not in a perfect mood to pick stocks. - Not to mention my Forex Trade. Ok, let´s review yesterdays action:

1) The trade on the USDCHF - I went long @ 1.2439, SL 1.2419. And, what can I say? I just hate whipshaws - the trade was wiped out exactly at 1.2419, resulting in a -20 Pip Loss. But how accurate! I just hate it. And, worst of all, the USDCHF is continuing to climb! Damned! - But enough for the emotional side now. Coming back to the analysis, I have to understand that my personal feeling of getting into the trade one day earlier @ 1.2372 would have been more than profitable. Instead I was unsure and just waiting for some other signal (TunnelMethod). So, what is the lesson for today:

"The only reliable system is inside of yourself! - If you feel comfortable, place the trade, if you do not feel comfortable, don´t place it!"

2) This, by the way, is true for WHI and especially CCJ aswell. Why did I hesitate to take the trade on CCJ? The option (CCJLG.X) climbed to 4$ - a sure 14% gain! And, WHI also climbed to 5.92$, meaning a 1,9% gain.

3) OMRI - this was my worst pick - I got stopped out at 16.12$ - resulting in a 5,1% loss. So, what is the positive aspect of this trade? The positive aspect: I picked the bottom quite well (actual bottom was at 16.10$)!

4) FUEL - also not the greatest pick - however, without any change! The close was 2$ again.

5) DRL - now, this was a pick like I like them: 4,8% gain, last price was 6.75$.

Last but not least: I never commented on the entries I take. Maybe I should do this - because sometimes you might not even get filled. In this case, you will not loose, nor win. But, entries are always difficult. Either a Limit or a Stop - I like to see where the market is going in the first 30 minutes. That is why I usually don´t comment on the entry. Anyhow, for today I will take a rest - I am not satisfied with my results yesterday. Of course you need a loosing day aswell - but 20 Pips...? I need a pause. More soon.

Take care,
The Stockinvestigator

Long on the USDCHF

Update:
I just placed a long trade on the USDCHF - based on the TunnelMethod. Buy @ 1.2439, my SL is 20 Pips below, at 1.2419. I have been tracking this currency pair since yesterday (I wanted to get in at 1.2372, but I was unsure - too bad!) - now I have my reliable (at least I hope so!) entry! Here is the chart:


Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

Starting into a new trading week

Hello again,

after a nice weekend, I am back and ready to start into a new trading week. These last days I haven´t felt very comfortable with picking stocks (a sign to stay out of the market!) - although I still feel a little dull, I picked some opportunities to trade today. (I guess the feeling of being dull is due to the fact that finally fall arrived here... the world outside is just a shade of grey...)

Here are my ideas:

1) OMRI - last price was 16.99$, my selection criteria was, once again, the RSI(2) with a current value of 2.85. My SL is at 16.12$ (12 cents below the PivotPoint - but it looks more reasonable to me - when looking at the chart!) - I don´t have a clear goal yet, but I expect the upward trend which started in mid-september, to continue.


2) FUEL - last price was 2.00$. My selection criteria was a filter that I call "FallenStocks". THE Code is as follows:

price dropped more than 30% over last 15 days
and rsi(2) is below 1
and price above 1

As you can see, basically another RSI(2) filter - annoying, right? But it works well, so why not? My SL level will be 1.85$. My first goal will be 2.42$ - and, later 2.85$. You can see them on my drawing in the chart.


3) DRL - last price was 6.44$. I picked this stock because of a filter called "Bowtie" - I have to admitt that I forgot who wrote about that filter, but I read it somewhere - it´s not my own idea. The bowtie is formed by three Moving Averages, an EMA(20), an EMA(30), and a MA(10). My SL for this stock is at 6.25$.


Two more stocks are on my watchlist - but somehow I don´t feel too comfortable with them. So I would like to see where they are heading today. The stocks I am talking about are: WHI and CCJ. Especially Cameco would be a candidate for a call option. Iwould prefer a "in-the-money" option - since I don´t expect a strong move. For example the option with the symbol: CCJLG.X, currently at 3.50$. Well, let´s see.

Good luck to you,
The Stockinvestigator

30 Pips vs. 6%?!

Hi again,

first of all, I´m sorry that I could not manage to post yesterday. Anyhow, let´s see what happened to my last advices:

Starting with the PutWarrant (QQIG) on the EURGBP. I bought it at 6.08€ - the high today was at 6.50€ - so, we are currently 6% up. That is good - but, and here is the interesting fact, concerning the undelying asset - which in this case is a currency pair - this 6% gain is not great at all. If I would have sold the EURGBP, I would have had a gain of +30 Pips so far - and, still running. Depending on how many lots you have, 30 Pips are around 30% - which is 5 times as much. Ohoh. I guess I just picked a bad example for the use of warrants...

Somehow it was not my best posting and stock picking day anyhow. (But you have to be aware of the fact that bad stock picks will also occur - it´s the question on when to get out in case they go the wrong way!) I recommended TIVO. And, I was stopped out at 7.75$. So, I lost 2,6%. However, TIVO closed at 7.67$ this day, which would have been a 3.6% loss. But, just yesterday TIVO climbed back to 7.75$, with a intraday high of 7.84$. And, I still see this stock as a candidate for profits (on a weekly basis). Now let´s take a look at NVAX: it lost some points and gained some points. Currently it is at 3.66$, still a gain of 1,9%. Although my RSI(2) displays a value above 50 right now, I still believe in this stock to climb. SL could be shifted upwards to 3.60$ - but I would stick with 3.48$.

So much for now. Today I will starting a long weekend - so, I will post again next week. Good luck to all of you,

The Stockinvestigator

Short on the EURGBP

Hi again,

how are you today? - Let´s have a look at yesterdays action first: NVAX climbed to 3.68$, a gain of 2,51%. I´m still bullish.

Coming back to my post yesterday - I have to add two comments: first, I did not mention the use of CFD´s. That of course is another option concerning leverage. - However, I did not use CFD´s myself yet - so, I´m a bit sceptical since I read a lot about so called "BucketShops" which basically rip you off. Second, the use of warrants is quite common in Germany at least. But, I have not found any information on that in the US?! Hm... - In Germany you could use the EUWAX to find and trade warrants.

Using this example, I would go short today on the EURGBP. Referring to the TunnelMethod for Forex, I missed the entry - but I still believe in a decline - so, I could use a Put on the EURGBP. I was looking at the one with the symbol: QQIG. Currently it costs 6.08€. This of course is just an example - since I don´t know right now, how to find warrants on the US market. So, if you don´t speak German and can not figure out the EUWAX site, don´t worry it´s just an example.

Also, I found another trading opportunity for today. It´s a "longer"-term opportunity - for one or two weeks. I am talking about TIVO. Last price was 7.96$. The PivotPoint is at 7.88$. However, looking at the chart, I would prefer a SL at 7.75$. (I drew both lines in green!) My first goal will be 8.40$ (the yellow line). The filter I used is the following:

DMA(13,-3) crossed above DMA(8,3) and stock is optionable

In addition to this setup, we have a hammer - or, if you would like to see it this way, a dragonfly doji. In either case, a bullish signal. Here is the chart:


Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

Increasing your profits...

Hi again,

today I would like to comment on increasing the profits. Profits are usually small when you only trade stocks. (at least compared to the time you have to wait for the profits) - Personally I don´t like Daytrading - one reason: you have to start with quite a lot of money - otherwise it will not work. (Let´s say 100.000$ at least!) - Now, I believe, most people will not have that money to start with - at least, I don´t! So, I like to set my virtual portfolio size at 10.000$ - which already is quite huge. If we would consider this portfolio size - and, assuming I trade a maximum of 5 open positions, let´s see what I would have gotten out of my trades last week?!:

Coming back to Friday. Where would I have gotten out? - Friday wasn´t a good day - most of the stocks I posted, lost. Somehow I felt it coming - but of course I could not foresee it. But, as I said, I would have closed all my trades on Friday. So, starting with PANL, I would have gotten out at 10.50$. First I would have looked at the market - it opened above Thursdays close - but then it could not find the strength to stay above. As it fell down, I would have sold at 10.50$. This would be a gain of 0.45$, equal to a 4,3% gain. Second, ABN - I expected a gain of 5%. This would have occured at the price of 28.75$. This was not reached - but almost. i would have gotten out at 28.50$ , a gain of 1.12$, or 4,1%. Next one in the list is XRAY. XRAY was not one of my best picks - it lost two days in a row. So, my SL of 31.30$ was hit - and I was out anyhow, with a loss of 1,2%. Last but not least, QUIK - a nice 15%+ move to begin with - chances were great it would fall back, and, it did. I would have gotten out at 3.45$, a win of 11%.

Now, all these trades together sum up to a total of 6,72% gain in one week. - For the portfolio, a net gain of 672$ - so the portfolio would have a current value of 10.672$. That is good - if one could keep that rate constant for a whole year. But, it could be better - and, in fact, it can be better! How?

The simple answer is, using warrants and options for your trading. While options are quite tricky and more complex (for there are more values to take into account), warrants are a great tool to increase profits on a trade. - Or, switch to something completely different, to Forex... but that is on another sheet.

Usually I don´t pick stocks on Mondays, but for today I would like to point out NVAX. It looks like a good setup - my favorite filter (RSI(2) below 5) gave a positive signal - and, the cahrt looks great to me. Last price was 3.59$. My SL would be at 3.48$. I don´t see any resistance before 4.83$. Let´s see. Here is the chart:


I´m sorry, I was so late this time. More these days, good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

The way I pick my stocks...

Yesterday I received a comment on my TradingIdeas from a user called "ham1198". Well, first of all, thanks a lot for your comment and the nice words. I was asked to publish my favorite filters. That is ok for me. Only I´m a afraid, the filters alone might not help you. Why? - It´s not about the filter - but the way to see and trade it!

But first let´s have a closer look at yesterdays action: what a day! QUIK turned out to be a great pick. It closed at 3.59$, which is a 15,43% gain in just one day! I can live with that quite well! XRAY however did not have the strength to climb - it lost 0,69%.

So much for the stock picks I made yesterday. Now, what is the deal about it? Which filter do I use? How do I pick my stocks?

My favorite site to pick stocks is: Stockfetcher. If you don´t know it - check it out! I have around 165 filters in my list - so it´s hard to post ll of them and comment on them. But let´s take a look at thefilter I used for the QUIK pick yesterday. It´s basically an ElderRay filter. Here is the code:

market not otcbb
set{bullpower, high minus ema(13)}
set{bearpower, low minus ema(13)}
bearpower below 0
bullpower reached a new 12 week high
price is between 1 and 5
add column bullpower
add column bearpower
draw ema(13)

Now, by using this filter yesterday, you wold have gotten 5 picks - and only two of them went up in price: QUIK (15,43%) and RMTR (2,79%). So, why did I pick QUIK? Only luck? - Maybe! (you also need luck sometimes...) - But, yesterday it was more than that! It´s the way you take a look at the results of the filter. This is something you will have to practice and learn. First I take a look at the chart - this just gives me an intuition of the situation. The second thing I take a closer look at (concerning this special filter) is the following: the slope of bearpower has to be negative (turning upwards!), while at the same time, bullpower is increasing! That´s the deal. Nothing more. If you take a look closely, the other stocks had bearpower aswell as bullpower increasing.... - and they lost, or only gained 2,79%. I hope this was somehow clear?! - I will somment on my picks more precisely next time.

Let´s take a look at all the other picks I made before:
- LTS went up 3,48% yesterday, and closed at 1.19$. - It already hit my first goal of 1.20$ intraday. I would have sold here - giving me a nice 15,4% gain in just 5 days!
- PANL lost 0,66 yesterday, falling back to 10.47$. Still a 4% gain - but I would get out of this trade soon.
- ABN went up again by 1,53%, closing at 28.16$. My goal of 5% is almost reached, so far we are up by 2,85%.

Ok, before I will leave into my weekend (I usually don´t have open positions over the weekend), I will comment shortly on how to lock in the gains. Basically all you have to do is changing the SL. How you change it, is up to you. I would stick with the PivotPoints again. This way you make sure that you don´t loose money on the trade - but you are still in - in case it climbs even more. However, for QUIK, you might want to set a closer SL - since 15,43% gain is quite huge - and you don´t want to loose it again. For the PivotPointSL, it would be 3.30$ - still leaving you with a 6% gain. If that is ok for you?!

I personally would close all my positions today. Knowing when to get out (PivotPoints) - but waiting for the market to show me, where it´s heading. More next week, for now, I will enjoy my weekend. I wish you all the best, good luck and take care,

The Stokinvestigator

Three mistakes I made...

Who would have expected that I´m back that fast? - Well, I was stopped out on the EURAUD Trade. And, I somehow knew it before. Why? - I have made three mistakes, here they are:

1. The EURAUD is very volatile - therefore the SL of 35 Pips was not enough. It was however way to much for me in the first place. I didn´t feel comfortable with it - still I set it this way. Why? I don´t know. But: if you don´t feel comfotable, don´t place the trade!

2. I didn´t stick to the 1hour TunnelMethod rules. Why? - I placed the SL below the actual EMA (and Tunnel). If I would have but it at the right spot, I wouldn´t have gotten stopped out - but, I would have also risked around 60Pips. Wow. - This problem refers to No.1...

3. I was rushing this trade. Don´t rush, if you in a hurry, don´t trade. Take your time to look at it carefully - this time, I didn´t! The result, a nice 35*2=70 Pip Loss - good job!

Untill a better Trade next time,
The Stockinvestigator

TradingIdeas II

Here are some TradingIdeas again:

1. XRAY, the RSI(2) is below 5 - I expect it to pop up again. Current price: 31.67$. My SL: 31.30.2. QUIK, BearPower is heading downwards, BullPower goes up, current price: 3.11$. My SL: 2.82$.

Also I went short 2 Lots on the EURAUD @ 1.6800 - which turned out a bad entry. Currently (only 30 minutes later!) the price is at 1.6822 again. However, this currency pair is very volatile - so I set my SL at 1.6835 (quite huge, I know!) - but, I expect my gain at 1.6690. Let´s see - I used the 1hour TunnelMethod again.

A short update on my previous TradingIdeas:
- LTS up 10,6% - currently at 1.15$
- PANL up 4,7% - currently at 10.54$
- ABN up 2,9% - currently at 28.18$

Concerning this issue, I will comment on setting a new SL (in order to get into profit!) next time.

The Stockinvestigator

Moneymanagement

Hi,

as promised, I would like to make some comments on Moneymagement today. Most of these ideas I adapted from van Tharp, so, it´s not my own system. But, it works quite well. I call it the 2%-6%-rule. This is how it works:

Assume you have a starting capital of 10.000$ (it works with any amount!). Then, you should not risk more than 2% of your total capital in one single trade. In our example, you shouldn´t risk more than 200$ per trade. Not much, right? - Ok, but the idea behind this system is to get out of losses quickly and to let profits run. Which means, we will have a tight SL. My idea is to have your SL in mind before you enter a trade. The method to determine the SL is up to you. Personally I work with the PivotPoints. I usually place the SL slightly below the expected PivotLowPoint. Once you have your SL, you can calculate the maximum amount of stocks oyu an buy. Let´s look at one example:

The stock of company greedy is currently at 12.50$. The expected PivotLowPoint would be at 12.20$. Hence the difference is equal to 0.30$. Now we divide the 200$ by 0.30$:

200$/0.30$=666.67 (oh, the number of the beast... upps...) - which means, you could buy 666 stocks of company greedy. Or, to round it, 650 stocks. (Which would be equal to 8125$.) - Nowyou can already see, that by changing the SL, you will either increase or decrease the amount of stocks. Let´s say you would put your SL at 11$. Then the amount of stocks to buy would be 200$/1.50$=133.33 - around 130 stocks only. Got it?

Well, that wasn´t to hard, was it? - But hey, let´s add another rule. The R-multiples idea. Your trade should have a reward to risk ratio that is greater or equal to 2. This means you should enter a trade when you are sure that the possible gain is twice (or more) the amount of the possible loss. In the first example above, it should therefore be at least a 0.60$ possible gain. The difference between the actual quote and the SL (here: 0.30$) is called "R". So, the possible gain should always be a multiple-R! You will not always achieve exactly 2 or more - everything above 1 is fine. Why? Because you are cutting your losses at 1R - so, the gain should be more than 1R.

That is basically the idea - for more details, you should read van Tharp, find more here: Van Tharp Institute.

Good luck to all of you,
The Stockinvestigator

Forex - The Tunnel Method by Vegas

I would also like to comment on Forex today. Why? - Forex has been the major research area for me within the last weeks. During my research I discovered a strategy called "The Tunnel Method" - which was invented by a guy called Vegas. You can find more on this topic under: TunnelTrading. - Currently I´m working with the 1hour setup which I modified a bit by using the PSAR aswell. Since I live in Germany, I started a virtual portfolio in a German discussion group yesterday. To make it more realistic, I started ou with only 2500$.

My first trade was goin short on the EURGBP @ 0.6781. I set my initial Stopp-Loss at the level of 0.6791. (A short 10 Pips SL - but due to the ATR, which was less than 8 in the maximum, I thought it was quite ok.) My first goal was 0.6720. But, it was not reached yet.This morning I changed my SL to 0.6776, since the price was at around 0.6763. Currently the price is at 0.6770 again, and it is going up again - just five minutes ago we had a Bullish Engulfing Pattern. - So, I might get stopped out on my new SL. At least I will have reached the breakeven point. But, I still hope that the trade might continue downwards. (If I had realized it this morning, I would have had a nice 20 Pip win in only 20 hours.... - but who cares about "would"...) Here is the current chart setup:

All stocks are up...

Hi again,

I´m sorry but yesterday I did not find the time to post any comments here. (As I told you before, I will not be ble to make it every day.) - And, still I´m no tfinished with the design of my blog. I was thinking of a little box tha will highlight the TradingIdeas and the percentual change. Since it´s not done yet, I will comment on my first TradingIdeas this way:

1. LTS is at 1.13$ currently - which is a nice 8,7% gain. Not bad - but my goal of 1.20 isn´t reached yet.

2. PANL is at 10.44$ currently - which is a 2,9% gain. That is ok - but I expected it to rise faster.

3. ABN already gained 1,8% out of my expected 5%. As I said, it will take a couple of days.

Patience is the key - sometimes at least. Since I´m not hre everyday, I focus swing-trading. The next thing missing is Moneymanagement. Tomorrow I will find the time to comment more on this, so stay tuned.

Good luck,
The Stockinvestigator

ABN - a safe 5% gain?

Hi again,

well, my first Trading Ideas have past their first trading day. Summing it up, I have to admitt that they were not the big movers in the end. LTS gained nearly 2% - that is ok, I guess. PANL however lost 0.3%. Oh well. Let´s see where they are heading today.

For today I would like to point out ABN. Just look at that nice chart - it´s a great WaveChart:


So, for those of you that can wait a couple of days, it should be a safe 5% gain. Usually it wins around 5% a week. How did I find that stock? Simply by using the RSI(2), which crossed below the value of 5. This is a very strong indicator for a possible PopUp. My Limit for buying would be 27.50$.

Good luck to all of you, see you soon,

The Stockinvestigator

TradingIdeas I

Hi,

it´s been a couple of days since my last Thread. And, I´m really sorry about that. I´m quite short on time these days. However, I don´t want to leave you with nothing. So, here are some Ideas for Trading today. I picked them on the base of some filters I set up on Stockfetcher. (I have to admitt that I was just checking them shortly, so please check them again!)

1. The first stock is: LTS (Ladenburg Thalman Financial Services)
A penny stock - I choose it because of my "ElderRay"-filter. I use the ElderRay quite often since it works fine for me. Here the last price was 1.04$. For Stopp-Loss I usually use the PivotPoints (I place the Stopp slightly below the PivotPoint). So, here the PivotPoint is 0.96$. I would place the SL at 0.94$. My first goal is 1.20$. (I drew the lines in the picture!) Here is the chart:


2. The second stock is: PANL (University Display Corporation)
Last price was 10.05$. I choose the stock because of a filter that I built myself, called "RangeRatio". The procedure is the same as above (PivotPoints). SL is 9.94$, first goal is 11.08$. Here is the chart:


That´s it for today - more next week. Have a nice trading day. Untill soon,

The Stockinvestigator

The Holy Grail of Trading

Hi to all my readers,

I hope you had a nice relaxing long "LabourDay"-weekend. - Since it was a holiday and the stock marke was closed, I will not comment on any trading opportunities today.

Much rather I would like to comment on the "Holy Grail of Trading". - To make it short: there isn´t any Holy Grail existing out there when it comes to Trading. So, forget about it. If you are still searching forit - quit it, it´s a waste of time! - But, I hear you say, there are quite a few Traders that make their living by trading - not to mention the ones that became very rich. What kind of technique did they use? Didn´t they have a holy grail?

No. But they knew about the markets and most of all, they knew about themselves. Trading is war. And, the first battle is the battle you have to win against yourself. Discipline and willingness to learn and adapt are the key features you need to have in oder to survive out there. You need to have a plan in advance - just like any good officer that will lead his troops into a battle (maybe I didn´t mention that I´m Naval Officer...). But of course you will also need luck and the right timing. Some people might have the feeling and appear to be exactly where they have to be to make good profits. But also those who don´t have these abilities can make good profits- just by beng disciplined, as mentioned above. There are thousands of concepts and ideas of how to trade and keep a good MoneyManagement (the key to success - which is having a plan before..). Within the following days I will comment on some of these ideas - and, once again, I`d be glad to read your comments.

For now I wish you a happy trading day - and only enter, if you know what you want to do in advance....

Greetings,
The Stockinvestigator

CSI: Financial Markets

Welcome to my new Blog "The Stockinvestigator".

What´s the story about "The Stockivestigator"? - Well, I would like to use this opportunity to post comments, thoughts, ideas, and opportunities concerning the financial markets. So, in a way, the name might mislead you - it´s more a "financial markets investigator" than only a "stock investigator". However, I will mostly deal with stocks. Additionaly I will also take a look at the Forex market and option plays.

This Blog will not be updated every day - but quite frequently. So, if you would like to follow, I suggest that you subscribe to a service like Weblogs. Also, I see this Blog like an interactive community - so, feel free to post comments and discuss my ideas.

For now however I want to wish you a happy weekend - and some relaxing days before the action will take place here again.

Greetings,
The Stockinvestigator